Noah Williams: Research


A Learning Model of Financial Instability

Revise and resubmit, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Latest Version: February 2024.

Full Paper: PDF  Slides: PDF

Optimal Unemployment Insurance and Cyclical Fluctuations with Rui Li.

Revise and resubmit, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics

Latest Version: November 2023.

Full Paper: PDF  Slides: PDF 

Collusive Outcomes Without Collusion: 

Algorithmic Pricing in a Duopoly Model with In-Koo Cho.

Latest Version: March 2024.

Full Paper: PDF 

Steady State Equilibria, Near Equilibria, and Escapes

Latest Version: June 2024.

Full Paper: PDF

Optimal Contracts with Hidden Risk with Rui Li.

Latest Version: June 2024.

Full Paper: PDF

Discussion of Tom Sargent's "Conquests of American Inflation: North and South"

Conference in Honor of Lars Peter Hansen, November 2022.

Discussion slides: PDF

On Dynamic Principal-Agent Problems in Continuous Time

Latest Version: September 2008.

Full Paper: PDF

Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Foreacast Targeting with Lars E.O. Svensson

Latest Version: May 2007.

Full paper: PDF

Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy Under Model Uncertainty with Lars E.O. Svensson

Latest Version: September 2007.

Full paper: PDF

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach with Lars E.O. Svensson

Latest Version: March 2008.

Full paper: PDF

Adaptive Learning and Business Cycles 

Latest Version: January 1, 2003. Preliminary.

Full Paper: PDF

Notes on Large Deviations in Economics and Finance

Latest Version: April 19, 2004

Seminar/Discussion Slides: PDF


Learning and Equilibrium Transitions: Stochastic Stability in Discounted Stochastic Fictitious Play

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 145:104567, December 2022.

Working paper version: PDF

State-Level Implications of Federal Tax Policies** with Chang Liu.

Journal of Monetary Economics, 105: 75-90, August 2019.

Published version: PDF

Escape Dynamics in Learning Models*

Review of Economic Studies, 86: 882-912, March 2019. 

Published version: PDF

A Solvable Continuous Time Dynamic Principal Agent Model#

 Journal of Economic Theory, 159: 989-1015, September 2015.

Published version: PDF

Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection with George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja, and Thomas J. Sargent.

in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, T. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, eds., Oxford University Press, pp. 99-119, 2013.

Working paper version: PDF

Monetary Policy under Financial Uncertainty

Journal of Monetary Economics, 59 (5): 449-465, July 2012.

Published version: PDF

Persistent Private Information ^

Econometrica, 79(4): 1233-1274, July 2011.

Published version: PDF

Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja.

International Economic Review, 51(1): 237-262, February 2010.

Working paper version: PDF

Empirical and Policy Performance of a Forward-Looking Monetary Model* with Alexei Onatski

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(1), 145-176, January/February 2010

Published version: PDF

The Conquest of South American Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent and Tao Zha.

Journal of Political Economy, 117(2), 211-256, April 2009.

Published version: PDF  

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach with Lars E.O. Svensson.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2008, 90(4), pp. 275-293.

Full Paper: PDF

Robust Control ^ An Entry for the New Palgrave, 2nd Edition. 2007

Full Paper: PDF

Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent and Tao Zha.

American Economic Review, 96(4): 1193-1224, September 2006.

Full Paper: PDF Earlier version released as: NBER Working Paper No. w10764

Robust Control and Model Misspecification with Lars Peter Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent, and Gauhar A. Turmuhambetova.

Journal of Economic Theory,128(1): 45-90, May 2006.

Full Paper: PDF

Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models* with Andrew Levin, Alexei Onatski, and John Williams

in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, M. Gertler and K. Rogoff, eds. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp. 229-287, 2006.

Full paper: PDF

Impacts of Priors on Convergence and Escape from Nash Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent. 

Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2): 360-391, March 2005. 

Published version: PDF

Small Noise Asymptotics for a Stochastic Growth Model*

Journal of Economic Theory, 119(2): 271-298, December 2004. 

Published version: PDF Also released as: NBER Working Paper No. w10194

Modeling Model Uncertainty* with Alexei Onatski.

Journal of the European Economic Assocation, 1(5): 1087-1022, September 2003. 

Full Paper: PDF Also released as: NBER Working Paper No. w9566

Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth with Marco Cagetti, Lars Peter Hansen, and Thomas J. Sargent.

Review of Financial Studies, 15(2): 363-404, March 2002. 

Full paper: PDF

Escaping Nash Inflation with In-Koo Cho and Thomas J. Sargent.

Review of Economic Studies, 69(1): 1-40, January 2002. 

Full paper: PDF