Noah Williams: Research
ACCEPTED OR FORTHCOMING PAPERS
Optimal Contracts with Hidden Risk with Rui Li.
Accepted subject to minor revision, Review of Economic Dynamics
Latest Version: June 2024.
Full Paper: PDF
A Learning Model of Financial Instability
Conditionally accepted, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Latest Version: November 2024.
WORKING PAPERS
Optimal Unemployment Insurance and Cyclical Fluctuations with Rui Li.
Revise and resubmit, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics
Latest Version: November 2023.
Steady State Equilibria, Near Equilibria, and Escapes
Revise and resubmit, Journal of Economic Theory
Latest Version: August 2024.
Full Paper: PDF
Collusive Outcomes Without Collusion:
Algorithmic Pricing in a Duopoly Model with In-Koo Cho.
Latest Version: March 2024.
Full Paper: PDF
Stochastic Cycles
Latest Version: August 2024.
Full Paper: PDF
Discussion of Tom Sargent's "Conquests of American Inflation: North and South"
Conference in Honor of Lars Peter Hansen, November 2022.
Discussion slides: PDF
On Dynamic Principal-Agent Problems in Continuous Time
Latest Version: September 2008.
Full Paper: PDF
Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Foreacast Targeting with Lars E.O. Svensson
Latest Version: May 2007.
Full paper: PDF
Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy Under Model Uncertainty with Lars E.O. Svensson
Latest Version: September 2007.
Full paper: PDF
Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach with Lars E.O. Svensson
Latest Version: March 2008.
Full paper: PDF
Adaptive Learning and Business Cycles
Latest Version: January 1, 2003. Preliminary.
Full Paper: PDF
Notes on Large Deviations in Economics and Finance
Latest Version: April 19, 2004
Seminar/Discussion Slides: PDF
PUBLICATIONS
Learning and Equilibrium Transitions: Stochastic Stability in Discounted Stochastic Fictitious Play
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 145:104567, December 2022.
Working paper version: PDF
State-Level Implications of Federal Tax Policies** with Chang Liu.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 105: 75-90, August 2019.
Published version: PDF
Escape Dynamics in Learning Models*
Review of Economic Studies, 86: 882-912, March 2019.
Published version: PDF
A Solvable Continuous Time Dynamic Principal Agent Model#
Journal of Economic Theory, 159: 989-1015, September 2015.
Published version: PDF
Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection with George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja, and Thomas J. Sargent.
in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, T. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, eds., Oxford University Press, pp. 99-119, 2013.
Working paper version: PDF
Monetary Policy under Financial Uncertainty
Journal of Monetary Economics, 59 (5): 449-465, July 2012.
Published version: PDF
Persistent Private Information ^
Econometrica, 79(4): 1233-1274, July 2011.
Published version: PDF
Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja.
International Economic Review, 51(1): 237-262, February 2010.
Working paper version: PDF
Empirical and Policy Performance of a Forward-Looking Monetary Model* with Alexei Onatski
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(1), 145-176, January/February 2010
Published version: PDF
The Conquest of South American Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent and Tao Zha.
Journal of Political Economy, 117(2), 211-256, April 2009.
Published version: PDF
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach with Lars E.O. Svensson.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2008, 90(4), pp. 275-293.
Full Paper: PDF
Robust Control ^ An Entry for the New Palgrave, 2nd Edition. 2007
Full Paper: PDF
Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent and Tao Zha.
American Economic Review, 96(4): 1193-1224, September 2006.
Full Paper: PDF Earlier version released as: NBER Working Paper No. w10764
Robust Control and Model Misspecification with Lars Peter Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent, and Gauhar A. Turmuhambetova.
Journal of Economic Theory,128(1): 45-90, May 2006.
Full Paper: PDF
Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models* with Andrew Levin, Alexei Onatski, and John Williams
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, M. Gertler and K. Rogoff, eds. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp. 229-287, 2006.
Full paper: PDF
Impacts of Priors on Convergence and Escape from Nash Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent.
Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2): 360-391, March 2005.
Published version: PDF
Small Noise Asymptotics for a Stochastic Growth Model*
Journal of Economic Theory, 119(2): 271-298, December 2004.
Published version: PDF Also released as: NBER Working Paper No. w10194
Modeling Model Uncertainty* with Alexei Onatski.
Journal of the European Economic Assocation, 1(5): 1087-1022, September 2003.
Full Paper: PDF Also released as: NBER Working Paper No. w9566
Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth with Marco Cagetti, Lars Peter Hansen, and Thomas J. Sargent.
Review of Financial Studies, 15(2): 363-404, March 2002.
Full paper: PDF
Escaping Nash Inflation with In-Koo Cho and Thomas J. Sargent.
Review of Economic Studies, 69(1): 1-40, January 2002.
Full paper: PDF