Noah Williams: Research

WORKING PAPERS

A Learning Model of Financial Instability

Latest Version: January 2023.

Full Paper: PDF


Discussion of Tom Sargent's "Conquests of American Inflation: North and South"

Conference in Honor of Lars Peter Hansen, November 2022.

Discussion slides: PDF


Optimal Unemployment Insurance and Cyclical Fluctuations with Rui Li.

Latest Version: December 2022.

Full Paper: PDF


Optimal Contracts with Hidden Risk with Rui Li.

Latest Version: September 2022.

Full Paper: PDF

On Dynamic Principal-Agent Problems in Continuous Time

Latest Version: September 2008.

Full Paper: PDF


Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Foreacast Targeting with Lars E.O. Svensson

Latest Version: May 2007.

Full paper: PDF


Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy Under Model Uncertainty with Lars E.O. Svensson

Latest Version: September 2007.

Full paper: PDF


Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach with Lars E.O. Svensson

Latest Version: March 2008.

Full paper: PDF


Adaptive Learning and Business Cycles

Latest Version: January 1, 2003. Preliminary.

Full Paper: PDF


Notes on Large Deviations in Economics and Finance

Latest Version: April 19, 2004

Seminar/Discussion Slides: PDF


PUBLICATIONS


Learning and Equilibrium Transitions: Stochastic Stability in Discounted Stochastic Fictitious Play

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 145:104567, December 2022.

Working paper version: PDF


State-Level Implications of Federal Tax Policies** with Chang Liu.

Journal of Monetary Economics, 105: 75-90, August 2019.

Published version: PDF


Escape Dynamics in Learning Models*

Review of Economic Studies, 86: 882-912, March 2019.

Published version: PDF


A Solvable Continuous Time Dynamic Principal Agent Model#

Journal of Economic Theory, 159: 989-1015, September 2015.

Published version: PDF


Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection with George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja, and Thomas J. Sargent.

in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy, T. Sargent and J. Vilmunen, eds., Oxford University Press, pp. 99-119, 2013.

Working paper version: PDF


Monetary Policy under Financial Uncertainty

Journal of Monetary Economics, 59 (5): 449-465, July 2012.

Published version: PDF


Persistent Private Information ^

Econometrica, 79(4): 1233-1274, July 2011.

Published version: PDF


Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning with George W. Evans and Seppo Honkapohja.

International Economic Review, 51(1): 237-262, February 2010.

Working paper version: PDF


Empirical and Policy Performance of a Forward-Looking Monetary Model* with Alexei Onatski

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(1), 145-176, January/February 2010

Published version: PDF


The Conquest of South American Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent and Tao Zha.

Journal of Political Economy, 117(2), 211-256, April 2009.

Published version: PDF


Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach with Lars E.O. Svensson.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2008, 90(4), pp. 275-293.

Full Paper: PDF


Robust Control ^ An Entry for the New Palgrave, 2nd Edition. 2007

Full Paper: PDF


Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent and Tao Zha.

American Economic Review, 96(4): 1193-1224, September 2006.

Full Paper: PDF Earlier version released as: NBER Working Paper No. w10764


Robust Control and Model Misspecification with Lars Peter Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent, and Gauhar A. Turmuhambetova.

Journal of Economic Theory,128(1): 45-90, May 2006.

Full Paper: PDF


Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models* with Andrew Levin, Alexei Onatski, and John Williams

in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, M. Gertler and K. Rogoff, eds. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp. 229-287, 2006.

Full paper: PDF


Impacts of Priors on Convergence and Escape from Nash Inflation* with Thomas J. Sargent.

Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2): 360-391, March 2005.

Published version: PDF


Small Noise Asymptotics for a Stochastic Growth Model*

Journal of Economic Theory, 119(2): 271-298, December 2004.

Published version: PDF Also released as: NBER Working Paper No. w10194


Modeling Model Uncertainty* with Alexei Onatski.

Journal of the European Economic Assocation, 1(5): 1087-1022, September 2003.

Full Paper: PDF Also released as: NBER Working Paper No. w9566


Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth with Marco Cagetti, Lars Peter Hansen, and Thomas J. Sargent.

Review of Financial Studies, 15(2): 363-404, March 2002.

Full paper: PDF


Escaping Nash Inflation with In-Koo Cho and Thomas J. Sargent.

Review of Economic Studies, 69(1): 1-40, January 2002.

Full paper: PDF